Originally Posted by Asheekay
That always happens in African countries. A sad fact.
A person comes to ruling and becomes a dictator.
That person exploits everything to make his regime last longer.
This makes the life of citizens difficult, especially the opposing political parties.
A military action begins between the coalition of the opposite parties and the dictator.
The coalition wins.
The head of the party forming most of the coalition rises to power, claiming to rid the country of the effects of the dictator government.
That head of the party slowly becomes a dictator himself.
Another coalition is formed against his regime.
I wouldn't really say that's particularly unique to Africa. The issue is with a country like Egypt, the difficulty in creating a genuine change to the state structure which has been in place for decades, tangled up in a web of foreign interests in both its military position and its economy. The problem was the MB did not support the revolution and had been kind of at a quid pro pro with the military to make sure they could give the appearance of some change while continuing to let the rest of the structure stand. The MB has been around in some form for at least half a century so it had a jump on other groups when it came to its ascendance.
The military relied on MB shortly afterwards in an alliance of necessity to defuse the situation two years ago. Unlike other opposition groups, for better or worse, MB actually had clout among the population. Even then I think analysis right now gives too much credit to Morsi and MB as a strongman as the FP article that fancypants posted- he does not have the same power that say Assad does or even Mubarak before him. It's obvious with certain statements the military has made that the relationship between his civil government and the military is tenuous.
There's a lot made here about the current government's turn towards authoritarian methods but like with Mubarak they skim over the economic problems in the country that the MB never took a serious stance against- instead they continued what Mubarak was doing.
The big problem that might occur here is not with paranoia over Egypt's position on Israel or terrorism, but whether interested foreign players in the country manage to find a political force that can jam down austerity measures and economic restructuring without causing blow back like Mubarak did, and what is coming back to bite the current government now. As much as western sources are going on about secular parties and responsible democracy, they are more interested in what group will keep Egypt economically viable and stable.
Some of the opposition parties that combined under the umbrella of the National Salvation Front after last November's constitutional debacle, adds now that they will only stop when they see Morsi exit. This is a big change and a bold step for those parties, and makes a pretty clear sand in the line that'll make an irreparable rift now. These parties are putting themselves behind the protests, getting more steam now that it's obvious the police and military are flexing their muscles again. The elections tabled for this month'll likely be cancelled with this going on.
Just to point out the National Salvation Front has three personalities- the first is Amr Moussa, an old Egypt functionary and former Arab League chair who was eliminated in the first round of the presidential elections. Mohammad ElBaradei, also a functionary and longtime head of the IAEA who was active in the original protests and warm support from western media, but had no real support on the ground at the time. The last is Hamdeen Sabahi, who came in third in the first round of the presidential elections and seen as a Nasserist-type socialist.
They all agree on the position of MB's power abuses and lack of plurality. They do not agree on the long term plans for Egypt though, as I think Moussa and ElBaradei would not mind instituting long term restructuring and austerity in exchange for the IMF loan that MB hasn't been able to secure. Sabahi on the other hand has been firmly against that and continues to argue for a throwback to old state policies, something that of course foreign investors would not like.
However the more ultraconservative al Nour have been more muted about what's been going on with the MB and ongoing protests, which holds the other share of vote from religious parties. It has only stated it is interested in "National Reconciliation", and a formation of a unity government as opposed to Morsi's outright removal.
Egyptian protests have also seen the emergence of a "black bloc", a common appearance in heated protests in the US and Europe, but as far as I know not too big in the Middle-East. In this particular episode they have been notable for their own vandalism and such to the point the government has even been accusing them of being supported by Israel apparently. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/201...rges-in-egypt/