Scotland to vote on independence in 2014

[Rikupsoni]

BBC News - Scottish independence: Cameron and Salmond strike referendum deal

They finally agreed that a referendum on Scottish independence will be held in 2014, with 16- and 17-year-olds being able to vote too.

Seems like BBC seems to hold a pretty strong unionist agenda on this issue, as they devoted articles to scare on the negative sides that might happen. I guess a lot of the issues would base on oil fields in North Sea, do they belong to Scotland or the United Kingdom.

The Scots would have a more Nordic style welfare system, some even thought about officially joining the Nordic Council. They'd have a small military, with non-interventionist policy as they didn't agree with going to Iraq for example. They would stay in the EU.

A big faction for the "no" vote most likely are Englishmen living in Scotland, or people with otherwise a lot of connections to England so they want to stay in the union.

Well, if I was a Scot, I'd probably vote yes due to the UK being so Westminster-based and general dissatisfaction with Labour–Conservatives two party politics. If it means a more suitable governance for the Scots, it's good.

?

[Nemmerle]

I remember there being a lot of speculation over this after the last election. If Scotland leaves the UK, many of the left wing constituencies go with them. So, it's in the conservatives interests to see this go ahead.

I don't believe Scottish independence in that regard would be a good thing for England. Whether it's in Scotland's interests, however, is far more complicated - and primarily an issue of economics. Can they afford to keep running a welfare system as they have today without the oil from the North Sea - if they're allowed to keep the oil how long can they sustain that?

Arguably Westminster is one of the more messed up systems of government running today. So even if they end up running deficit starting off it may be worth it just for them to get away from that stone around their necks.... There's a lot of inefficiency resulting from the way things are run around here that might see them clear if they can manage things better.

[MrFancypants]

There are similar movements in Spain and Belgium. Wouldn't be surprised if this sentiment eventually also gains some popularity in Germany, where there is a very unequal distribution of federal taxes across the states.

[Commissar MercZ]

What is the overall support for Scottish independence in Scotland? Most I can really gauge this by is through the support the Scottish National Party receives in the elections it stands for. Even with the case of the Catalonian moves for independence which has had more traction, the last referendum on its autonomy while successful had a low turnout, surprisingly considering the ramifications of the vote.

It would be interesting to see whether sentiments for Welsh independence as strong as those for Scottish.

I think what makes those in Spain and Belgium stronger though is that they're on ethnic lines rather on solely a matter of political power. At least with the Catalonian concerns in Spain, the conception that a distant government in Madrid is dictating their affairs, or with the Flanders-Wallonian divisions in Belgium, it's a perception that they as an ethnic group do not have adequate representation or control in their affairs.

*Most* of the time these movements are in areas that feel that they are on the periphery of national affairs and not really receiving the benefits of a government (or forced assimilation), though some are not active in the present day. So then they advocate for some measure of autonomy or outright independence. Presently the more active ones, in Europe at least, are Catalonian, Euskadi/Basque Country (these two have groups which were active in violence against the government), the Flanders-Wallonia divide in Belgium, and of course Scotland. Then there are those that were more active historically or don't have as much traction as those listed above- ones that come to mind are Corsica (once had a French security concern), Sardinia, Sami, and Sicily who've all had independence movements at one point in their history. There's also some movements in France, mostly those in Britanny (NW corner of France, coincidentally along the same Celtic lines of Scotland) and Occitania (Southern part of France) which aren't as strong as those in other parts of the world. Then the numerous issues of groups left inside the borders of other countries in the aftermath of wars- say German-speaking peoples in the Tyrols of Italy or more (in)famously, the case of Sudetenland.

Again in most of these cases they had some shared line of either feeling they were economically exploited or not receiving adequate representation. Along with that some conception that their culture was in danger of being destroyed or neglected by the dominant government assimilating them. Lot of them were typically left-wing in nature too, or at least promoting government welfare measures and public supports for cultural preservation rather than operating on solely a pro-business platform as some interest group parties do.

The notable exception to this observation has been the Lega Nord in Italy, itself a significant political force and involved in Berlusconi's previous governments (I believe they are still supporting the current one until elections) which takes the position that Southern Italy leeches off the North, and that the latter should break off in order to prosper more. So it's not a case of an impoverished area but an overall wealthy one. They try to form an idea of a common north Italian heritage based on the linguistic differences in local italian dialects before the creation of a common one (based off a Florentine dialect I believe) in Italian Unification, they've gone so far as to refer to N. Italy as Padania. Lega Nord had a social democratic policy in its early years but shifted to a more conservative one over the years, presumably to try and appeal to the large businesses and industries that exist in the north. Interestingly no corresponding movement exists in the South of Italy, at least in a comparable political force to Lega Nord.

[Emperor Benedictine]

I believe it's something like a third of Scottish voters currently in favour of full independence. The remaining two thirds being divided between those who are against any further constitutional change, and the slightly larger portion that favours a greater level of fiscal autonomy for Scotland, without wanting to dissolve the union completely (something like the "devolution max" option that was intended to be presented as an alternative to full independence). But the government has, rather strategically you might say, removed devo max from the equation, opting instead to make it a final, all-or-nothing, yes or no vote on the question of remaining part of the union as is or breaking away altogether.

All in all a "no" vote seems fairly likely, but a lot could change in the next two years depending on how well each side presents its case to those who are in favour of greater autonomy. It'll also be interesting to see how 16-17 year olds taking part in the vote might influence the outcome.

[Rikupsoni]

Yeah, around 29 % or so support independence in current polls with 11 % unsure. A while ago, the number was at 39 % – I don't know why it has lowered a bit since.

Originally Posted by MrFancypants

There are similar movements in Spain and Belgium. Wouldn't be surprised if this sentiment eventually also gains some popularity in Germany, where there is a very unequal distribution of federal taxes across the states.

I don't know, the demands for independence seem to have something to with not only regionalism but also nationalism to some degree (to which people most likely support an unified Germany) so it's hard to imagine. But yes, I've read about the Spanish case as Catalonians think they have too much of a burden to pay for Spanish debts.

Originally Posted by Emperor Benedictine

All in all a "no" vote seems fairly likely, but a lot could change in the next two years depending on how well each side presents its case to those who are in favour of greater autonomy. It'll also be interesting to see how 16-17 year olds taking part in the vote might influence the outcome.

The demand for 16-17 year-olds to vote was from the SNP side to which Cameron agreed. Scottish independence seems to be popular amongst the youth. By chance, I once stumbled upon a Facebook poll and the overwhelming majority of teens seemed to root for independence.

But it really matters which side gets more active voters. Are all these young people going to vote, or do the UK supporters all feel so strongly about it that they're going to vote. 2 years is a long time, hard to forecast it. Especially as a lot of things can happen with the current EU crisis.

[Commissar MercZ]

I must wonder though how much detaching oneself from a national entity would lessen or insulate them from the effects of the economy. Nowadays in particular it's difficult to make an insulated economy that is free from the whims of regional and international trends in trade.

There would be a lot of decoupling involved too, I'm reminded of the issues posed with South Sudan's secession from the rest of Sudan. Even when considering the infrastructure and development differences, the whole matter of deciding what belongs to who is an issue- that is if a citizen from Sudan owned something there, would they still be guaranteed to keep it? Would it be expropriated? Would they be compensated for this?

[ItsChip]

Saw this and thought the same as the increasingly majority seem to. I think it would be a great thing for the Scots mainly due to the structure of Westminster and Great Britain's structure of Local Government, short and simple it's a shambles.

If the Scots pull this through I'll be extremely glued to how they're going to deal with it, you never know they could end up worse off but it's one of those things I suppose. Just hope all these teens coming up with what's looking like a "Yes" aren't just doing it out of passion to be independent, a lot of risk here. They have to really define their own structures if they do this, unlike us Irish who once we got our independence we pretty much took the British systems, if not even made them worse.

[Mihail]

Yeah, around 29 % or so support independence in current polls with 11 % unsure. A while ago, the number was at 39 % – I don't know why it has lowered a bit since.

I don't know, but I believe BBC scare tactics might play apart of that, when speaking of the issue they tend to bring up the fact that Scotland intends to take on the euro if they get independence and how if the EU crumbles it will leave Scotland in a very bad position.

[Mr. Matt]

Let them go.

England gets its government back (many of you have no doubt heard of the campaign to get an English Parliament going - to think, we would have had to devolve from our own union, tsk), and the Scots will finally figure out why we've been bitching for so long about funding their free drug prescriptions that we don't get ourselves.