Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

BBC News - Scottish independence: Cameron and Salmond strike referendum deal

They finally agreed that a referendum on Scottish independence will be held in 2014, with 16- and 17-year-olds being able to vote too.

Seems like BBC seems to hold a pretty strong unionist agenda on this issue, as they devoted articles to scare on the negative sides that might happen. I guess a lot of the issues would base on oil fields in North Sea, do they belong to Scotland or the United Kingdom.

The Scots would have a more Nordic style welfare system, some even thought about officially joining the Nordic Council. They'd have a small military, with non-interventionist policy as they didn't agree with going to Iraq for example. They would stay in the EU.

A big faction for the "no" vote most likely are Englishmen living in Scotland, or people with otherwise a lot of connections to England so they want to stay in the union.

Well, if I was a Scot, I'd probably vote yes due to the UK being so Westminster-based and general dissatisfaction with Labour–Conservatives two party politics. If it means a more suitable governance for the Scots, it's good.

http://www.englandforall.co.uk/image...t-scotland.png ?

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I remember there being a lot of speculation over this after the last election. If Scotland leaves the UK, many of the left wing constituencies go with them. So, it's in the conservatives interests to see this go ahead.

I don't believe Scottish independence in that regard would be a good thing for England. Whether it's in Scotland's interests, however, is far more complicated - and primarily an issue of economics. Can they afford to keep running a welfare system as they have today without the oil from the North Sea - if they're allowed to keep the oil how long can they sustain that?

Arguably Westminster is one of the more messed up systems of government running today. So even if they end up running deficit starting off it may be worth it just for them to get away from that stone around their necks.... There's a lot of inefficiency resulting from the way things are run around here that might see them clear if they can manage things better.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

There are similar movements in Spain and Belgium. Wouldn't be surprised if this sentiment eventually also gains some popularity in Germany, where there is a very unequal distribution of federal taxes across the states.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

What is the overall support for Scottish independence in Scotland? Most I can really gauge this by is through the support the Scottish National Party receives in the elections it stands for. Even with the case of the Catalonian moves for independence which has had more traction, the last referendum on its autonomy while successful had a low turnout, surprisingly considering the ramifications of the vote.

It would be interesting to see whether sentiments for Welsh independence as strong as those for Scottish.

I think what makes those in Spain and Belgium stronger though is that they're on ethnic lines rather on solely a matter of political power. At least with the Catalonian concerns in Spain, the conception that a distant government in Madrid is dictating their affairs, or with the Flanders-Wallonian divisions in Belgium, it's a perception that they as an ethnic group do not have adequate representation or control in their affairs.

*Most* of the time these movements are in areas that feel that they are on the periphery of national affairs and not really receiving the benefits of a government (or forced assimilation), though some are not active in the present day. So then they advocate for some measure of autonomy or outright independence. Presently the more active ones, in Europe at least, are Catalonian, Euskadi/Basque Country (these two have groups which were active in violence against the government), the Flanders-Wallonia divide in Belgium, and of course Scotland. Then there are those that were more active historically or don't have as much traction as those listed above- ones that come to mind are Corsica (once had a French security concern), Sardinia, Sami, and Sicily who've all had independence movements at one point in their history. There's also some movements in France, mostly those in Britanny (NW corner of France, coincidentally along the same Celtic lines of Scotland) and Occitania (Southern part of France) which aren't as strong as those in other parts of the world. Then the numerous issues of groups left inside the borders of other countries in the aftermath of wars- say German-speaking peoples in the Tyrols of Italy or more (in)famously, the case of Sudetenland.

Again in most of these cases they had some shared line of either feeling they were economically exploited or not receiving adequate representation. Along with that some conception that their culture was in danger of being destroyed or neglected by the dominant government assimilating them. Lot of them were typically left-wing in nature too, or at least promoting government welfare measures and public supports for cultural preservation rather than operating on solely a pro-business platform as some interest group parties do.

The notable exception to this observation has been the Lega Nord in Italy, itself a significant political force and involved in Berlusconi's previous governments (I believe they are still supporting the current one until elections) which takes the position that Southern Italy leeches off the North, and that the latter should break off in order to prosper more. So it's not a case of an impoverished area but an overall wealthy one. They try to form an idea of a common north Italian heritage based on the linguistic differences in local italian dialects before the creation of a common one (based off a Florentine dialect I believe) in Italian Unification, they've gone so far as to refer to N. Italy as Padania. Lega Nord had a social democratic policy in its early years but shifted to a more conservative one over the years, presumably to try and appeal to the large businesses and industries that exist in the north. Interestingly no corresponding movement exists in the South of Italy, at least in a comparable political force to Lega Nord.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I believe it's something like a third of Scottish voters currently in favour of full independence. The remaining two thirds being divided between those who are against any further constitutional change, and the slightly larger portion that favours a greater level of fiscal autonomy for Scotland, without wanting to dissolve the union completely (something like the "devolution max" option that was intended to be presented as an alternative to full independence). But the government has, rather strategically you might say, removed devo max from the equation, opting instead to make it a final, all-or-nothing, yes or no vote on the question of remaining part of the union as is or breaking away altogether.

All in all a "no" vote seems fairly likely, but a lot could change in the next two years depending on how well each side presents its case to those who are in favour of greater autonomy. It'll also be interesting to see how 16-17 year olds taking part in the vote might influence the outcome.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

Yeah, around 29 % or so support independence in current polls with 11 % unsure. A while ago, the number was at 39 % – I don't know why it has lowered a bit since.

I don't know, the demands for independence seem to have something to with not only regionalism but also nationalism to some degree (to which people most likely support an unified Germany) so it's hard to imagine. But yes, I've read about the Spanish case as Catalonians think they have too much of a burden to pay for Spanish debts.

The demand for 16-17 year-olds to vote was from the SNP side to which Cameron agreed. Scottish independence seems to be popular amongst the youth. By chance, I once stumbled upon a Facebook poll and the overwhelming majority of teens seemed to root for independence.

But it really matters which side gets more active voters. Are all these young people going to vote, or do the UK supporters all feel so strongly about it that they're going to vote. 2 years is a long time, hard to forecast it. Especially as a lot of things can happen with the current EU crisis.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I must wonder though how much detaching oneself from a national entity would lessen or insulate them from the effects of the economy. Nowadays in particular it's difficult to make an insulated economy that is free from the whims of regional and international trends in trade.

There would be a lot of decoupling involved too, I'm reminded of the issues posed with South Sudan's secession from the rest of Sudan. Even when considering the infrastructure and development differences, the whole matter of deciding what belongs to who is an issue- that is if a citizen from Sudan owned something there, would they still be guaranteed to keep it? Would it be expropriated? Would they be compensated for this?

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

Saw this and thought the same as the increasingly majority seem to. I think it would be a great thing for the Scots mainly due to the structure of Westminster and Great Britain's structure of Local Government, short and simple it's a shambles.

If the Scots pull this through I'll be extremely glued to how they're going to deal with it, you never know they could end up worse off but it's one of those things I suppose. Just hope all these teens coming up with what's looking like a "Yes" aren't just doing it out of passion to be independent, a lot of risk here. They have to really define their own structures if they do this, unlike us Irish who once we got our independence we pretty much took the British systems, if not even made them worse.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I don't know, but I believe BBC scare tactics might play apart of that, when speaking of the issue they tend to bring up the fact that Scotland intends to take on the euro if they get independence and how if the EU crumbles it will leave Scotland in a very bad position.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

Let them go.

England gets its government back (many of you have no doubt heard of the campaign to get an English Parliament going - to think, we would have had to devolve from our own union, tsk), and the Scots will finally figure out why we've been bitching for so long about funding their free drug prescriptions that we don't get ourselves.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

There might be scare tactics, there might also be the issue of getting people motivated here. I mean it's not really a scare tactic when it comes on how to decouple the economic links, this comes up with the dissolution of any larger political unit. Same thing I believe could be said with say the natural resources in Azerbaijan and Central Asia, and some of their continued relations with firms located in Russia by virtue of former connections from the Soviet Union era. Scotland may continue to be economically dominated by the United Kingdom is what I'm getting at.

I would have to think that if it's the British government willing to do this they think there's not much threat to them. It won't look good for one of this government's legacies to be one that Scotland decided to leave, but maybe to put the matter to rest once and for all by claiming no one in Scotland really wants to see them leave the union. Same way the referendums in Gibraltar and Falklands went.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

Sure, but making it sound like the EU is falling and that they'll be another greece isn't exactly a very nice tone to be setting specially when Iceland who was able to recover from the banks, didn't suddenly make a about face, they are still pushing to join the EU and the Euro.

I would compare this situation closer to that of when Khrushchev took the Crimean from the Russian Republic and gave to the Ukrainian Republic, they were still in the same union so it it didn't matter it's not as if suddenly the industry in place was destroyed the made changes and that was it, same can be said about scotland and england, they are still in the EU, so it's not as if that much will change, custom trade unions might have to be established, but so what? It's not as if the scots plan on taking a table saw to the isle and float away to norway. They'll just have to work together.

Although I doubt scotland will leave, it makes some english nationalists and politicians depressed, the english are a proud lot, they don't want to see the last real bit of the empire leave.

I doubt any issue ever has been "put to bed", as long as thing are "acceptable" theres no reason for things to change. But if the pound were to sink like the titanic(which could happen) could make those "issues" wake out of bed.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I know, it was odd that the

Would Scotland still be in the same union? I was under the impression that this would allow it to exit the UK entirely, rather than a different association as was the case with the transfer of the Crimean republic from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.

My comparison with Central Asia was one that even if independence is secured, it will not mean total independence from the influence of a larger, neighboring power. James Connolly, one of those involved in the movement for Irish independence, had this to say on the matter:

James Connolly - Wikiquote

[quote]
If you remove the English army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle, unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts would be in vain. England would still rule you. She would rule you through her capitalists, through her landlords, through her financiers, through the whole array of commercial and individualist institutions she has planted in this country and watered with the tears of our mothers and the blood of our martyrs[quote]

Now ignoring the bit about the socialist republic and what not, I think that is a valid point here regarding the difference between a genuine independence, and one that only exists in paper as Scotland might end up having. This is generally the problem that exists with a lot of independence movements when they dissociate from a long occupying force.

And of course, it isn't absolute. Baltic States upon exiting from the Soviet Union guided their relations such that they were presumably tied to other economic circles outside of the collapsing Soviet Union and the successor Russian Federation.

Though some of the stuff there has been nutty. I believe in both Estonia and Latvia for example there was a law passed there as they got independence to rework citizenship standards such that knowledge of the language was a standard to earn the citizenship. This of course was directed against Russian residents of those countries and made the intentions of the new state clear regarding its former relationship with Russia.

Yeah, the drama ensuing from this is amusing.

It can never be squashed but it can be significantly reduced to the point of obscurity and irrelevance. It's the same reason why the movement to say make Sicily an independent country was strong in the 40s and 50s, but gradually died off afterwards such that it's not really a serious political topic now.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

I was referring to the EU, so unless england plans on leaving the EU, theres no reason why the same trade laws wouldn't be the same.

Of course not, but as I said, it's not as if Scotland will float away, they will still be tied to each other.

As it stands now scots in general don't want to be the host of nato trident missiles, would they not be able to tell nato to gtfo? At what point can you define "genuine independence"? I'd say that one would be a pretty big step forward, as I already said scotland and england aren't going anywhere, but scotland isn't exactly feeble in it's own right, it does have things to offer to the world market(manufacturing especially) let alone the north sea and it's oil and gas, well.... Scotland could be sitting pretty, sure english companies currently have the rigs, but it would be scott oil they are pulling out the ground, besides close them down and build new ones, the US would be willing to help thats for sure, Norway, Russia, China the help is endless =P

Baltic Republics were major investments like all other republics, which because they weren't controlled directly only centrally which ment the transition to an independent state was easy to do, but don't mistake Baltic's current political agendas for anything but what they are, Russia as it stands today still invests in the Baltics as it does in every other former republic because they are still tied, industries were spread out; to build a Antov to carry the buran you need parts from Russia, to Build the rockets to launch the buran you need parts from Belarussia to launch the buran you need Kazakhstan's Baikonur Cosmodrome, to simply cut off trade because of becoming different political entities is silly and pricey, when you can still play your cards and end up getting what you need in the end.

What I ment by that analogy is simple if both parties can agree, theres no reason why they both won't profit.

I won't go over it again, but as I said, it's merely a political agenda, For the Baltic countries to "get out from the shadow" of the soviet union and claim to be victims is a easy way out of many problems.

I don't find it amusing at all, it would be sad to see the UK vanish, but at the same time I look at it from the perspective of the scots, their nobles sold the people and the land off to the King of England, If I was a Scottish national I'd want to break the union just as much as the english want to keep it.

As i said, as long as things are okay, aka "stays the same and doesn't get too much worse for too long" then you can keep the populous quelled for a very very long time, but doesn't last forever.

Re: Scotland to vote on independence in 2014
 

Look, I'm not saying that Scottish independence is a bad thing. I just doubt that it would be able to completely decouple themselves from influence by London, the same driving force behind the issues with economy that has given support to the referendum movement.

Is the issue of the North Sea covered in this agreement? Or is it to be decided afterwards in the event of a referendum vote to secede?