At the edge of another world war.
 

I've been watching the news lately along with other talk shows such and I fear the worst for this nation and perhaps the world. What I'm about to state is my theory of what will happen to this nation and the world:

I believe Russia is nearing a state of alliance with Iran. Though I believe it will remain secret for awhile to the public, intelligence agencies would know of this. The reason for this alliance is 1, because of Putin, and 2, because Russia boosts its economy by selling various weapons to Iranian terrorists. The reason the US wont engage Iran for the time being is because of this "secret alliance" but eventually we will have no choice... When and if the US seeks war on Iran the Russians will immediately Ally with them. When this happens, England will ally with the United States along with several other NATO countries. Then, China and Korea ally with Iran and Russia. Boom... we have another World War.
Although most of the war would be fought in the middle east, I believe we will see a series of terrorist uprising inside the US, England and other nations. Eventually, the war would be spread through out all of Asia and on a new front: outerspace. The US would deploy a series of DEW's on satelites while China perfects its ICBM systems. Perhaps this generation will see what could have happened in the Cold War.

Is my theory "out there" or does it seem legitiment. Feel free to post your own thoughts on the future of this world and where we may be headed with the war in Iraq.

mmm...

I live for the moment. ;)

But here is my theory:

I don't think russia would try taking on the US, even with allies like china and Iran. I don't think anyone (beside fanatical terrorists) will ever use nuclear weapons on a massive scale to fight a war. They know that nuclear weapons do more damage than good and most countries only have nukes so that they can have MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) protection.

But this is just an "off-the-top-of-my-head" guess of the future. So please don't take me seriously on this topic. :)

I got part Russian in my blood, so me and my family can move there to my dad's side of the family and I'm safe no matter what:p...

But, generally, I expect soon Japan or such to become the new 'U.S', America lives for the moment, and the moment is soon to end....

This may be the beginning of my theory...

I think we could get Russia on our side, if not at most stay neutral. I don't see them going with the terrorists, they are a civilized country.

Putin might be getting kinda fascist, but I can"t think that he"d try to ally with Iran, if it does happen, it might be a three or four-way war, but I don"t see Russia and Iran as more than just business associates. I could imagine Iran supporting the Chechens in their fight.

If only North Korea allied with US, then everything would be ok. If I was bush I would try and make peace with them. With North Korea and US together there would be no wars because everyone would be scared.

True

There is really no point for north Korea to try and start a war anyways because they are surrounded by Japan and China. China and Japan would go on USA's side if NK started a war because they know that if USA nukes NK then the fallout would spread over the entire area thus contaminating the Chinese/Jap gulf ocean.

hmm, interesting theory though it exist without taking into account the various money angles of everything concerned.

On the Iran front, you have a belligerent nation that is surrounded on 3 sides by ANOTHER belligerent nation. The US currently has unobstructed access to Iranian targets via the Persian Gulf, A-stan, and Iraq.
In addition, without American presence. Iran is still near such historical enemies as Saudi, Iraq, and Israel not to mention its own unsettled population.

Russia isnt an ally anybody needs. Russias 'alliance' will consist of nothing more than offering to sell you weapons. they WONT be sending a naval force, and air force or a land force to support you. If you have the cash, they will give you toys to play with though.

China isnt about to ally with Iran in the face of their largest trade partner, the US. The 80 Billion or so a year the US alone contributes to Chinas growing economy will ensure that if anything, Chinas actions will be neutral if not US-beneficial.

Basically you have a nation surrounded by powerful-ass opponents, a lack of comparable military strength and a hopeful alliance made up of countries that might help you equipment wise provided you pay through the nose for it.

North Korea will remain a non-issue as the US can effectively bribe them from taking point either way. The Norks need fuel, food, and aid. the US is willing to provide so long as they STHU and GBTW so to speak.

As far as a potential nuclear exchange? no way. It doesnt benefit anyone that has the ability. The US isnt about to pop nukes into China because of business interest alone and China isnt about to engage in the same for similar reasons. It doesnt help that China is more vulnerable to such attacks than the US would be in any event. The age of large scale convential war between the super powers is over. Whats happening NOW is the future. War through proxy and war through asymmetrical means. The war in A-stan bled into Iraq which may bleed into Iran but one thing will remain certain, the war will remain in the undeveloped countries periodic terrorist attacks notwithstanding.

I agree.

I can see Russia and China sending buttloads of planes, tanks, and missiles to Iran but it would be quite another thing to send their own troops there.

There's only one way that scenario's ever going to play out,

'The earth was nearly wiped clean of life - a great cleansing - an atomic spark struck by human hands quickly raged out of control. Spears of nuclear fire rained from the skies. Continents were swallowed in flames and fell beneath the boiling oceans.'

- Fallout 2 Intro

Even politicians have too much to lose from that sort of thing. As long as powerful nations have nuclear weapons I don't think we're going to see another world war. The minute it looked like someone was going to lose that someone would nuke everything they could reach.

Just finished playing that game.. made me think of this thread too.

I agree. But then again, what we have now is more or less peace, the Iraq conflict is isolated, as are the other few wars raging about the Earth. Someday, things might tip out of balance, but I sure as hell can't see it happening anytime soon.

Well if this isn't going supposedly happen then how come countries that are generally against us are making threats and finding ways to demonstrate their power. Korea tested a nuke and an IRBM but generally fails, china successfully shot down a weather satellite with an ICBM while Iran basically wants Israel to be destroyed by any means possible. I believe Shavis (No idea how to spell his name) stated something like "I want Israel whipped off the map." And Russia is both training Iranian troops and providing them with weapons that can effectively combat our forces!
I mean other incidents to are indirect protests of the united states actions. Its almost as if some sort of alliance is happening or rather an unofficial unification that condemns our actions. Can we really be so sure what would happen if we had to engage one of those nations. And how will are politicians react if they found that one of our enemies was getting aid from China, Russia or even North Korea?
I honestly don't think it will take much to start this whole thing off. I don't believe its a matter of if but when!

just maintaining the status quo.
China and Korea continue to test their missle technology to equalize our test whenever we talk about ABM or a new Aegis missle system. kind of a "yeah look what we can do" thing. there is nothing overtly threatening about it. The US buddies up with poland and the various ex-com bloc nations so Russia buddies up with Iran and Syria. Lets not forget that once upon a time that Russia was buddies with China. Certainly no love lost their anymore.

And it has never been a secret that Russia is willing to equip a military if'n they got the gold to spring for it. Chavez bought a bunch of AK's and is talking about Fighter jets and half of Irans stuff is Soviet in origin with the other half being antiquated American stuff or crude copies of both.

China is puffing up for the invasion of Taiwan and want the US to believe that they are capable of doing damage to us, in one form or another; in the case of the missile and the satellite, to show that our intelligence systems are vulnerable. If the US backs down, Taiwan becomes another example of how much our word means, like the treaty signed before we left Vietnam that we never enforced, resulting in the communist unification of Nam. If we step up to the plate, a major war could break out, with no winner that can be predicted at the moment.

People often say that China is economically dependent on the US, but China is under an authoritarian government, with no restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They can make people work for food alone, if even food and not simply under the threat of death. In America, despite how many things we think are meaningless that come from China, those meaningless items, those mass produced parts and pieces, go into the making of products we do need or at least commonly depend on. If we boycott China, we'll stop getting all these miscellaneous bits and bobs that we use are parts of items, and we have to build up industry in the US, which results in even more pollution, which is even more bad press in global affairs, and lowers the quality of American life, and furthermore and most importantly, it's going to cost a shitload, which of course can be printed on fresh bills much like everything today, but it'll be an excuse for the future democrat based government to start a tax hike, and then tax the new industries that we have to build for their pollution, and tax whatever else they can find to tax.

China's military technology is dated, but they aren't out of the running, Taiwan is closer to China by a few thousand miles, than we are. Which means they can either use cheap ships to ferry over mass loads of infantry, or use their best junk heaps to hall back and forth what they need until we can bring in bigger guns. We have a presence in Japan and around Taiwan, but it's not exactly the pacific fleet. Besides, so little intelligence comes out of intelligence, we don't really know what they are capable of, besides mind control, they published their work on successful mouse mind control a year ago, shortly after similar work in Japan was published.

The Big Redskee, I'll get to that tommorow

yeah but that doesn't explain why Russia would take time to train Iranian troops when they are supposed to be allies with us and they know that we don't like them. Are they preparing them for something or what? Certainly that costs money Russia's economy supposedly cant support.

About mind control, I think that has something to do with scalar technology and ultra low radio frequencies that affect the brain...


We are codependent, our companies go to China while we buy from the work of Chinese workers. Actually, American companies only have to pay 2/7 the cost of an American worker for a Chinese worker. Anyway, for this reason I can see why we maybe reluctant to go to war so quickly. However, I disagree on you other points. I believe reverting America back to a producing nation is a good thing. If more companies stayed in America more jobs could be produced which, in turn, leads to an improved economy. More people have more money to spend. Also, being a producing nation make it so other nations depends on us so we could have better control over world affairs while securing ourselves. It doesn't necessarily mean more pollution but rather displaced pollution. Factories in China are abandoned and replaced with ones in America. Sure we may go into an economic depression but we would no-doubt recover; perhaps even better than we were before. Self sufficiency is the way to go, at least thats what I think.

At no point was Russia an ally of the US after 1945. Not then. Not now. They simply arent a direct enemy anymore. Russia is training Irans army for one reason. Money. Iran buys Russian weapons and guess who has to train them on it. This training results in further purchase which require even more training. Russia isnt losing money sending technicians and advisors to Iran, they are gaining it through future arms deals and 'incentive' packages like oil.



Good point and im not adverse to your line of thinking. Just be aware that should America shift back to American produced goods instead of cheap overseas items, that the cost WILL be directly returned to the consumer. You can kiss Box stores and cheap items goodbye. After awhile your average American is gonna miss the days of $2 bags of T-shirts and cars under $30,000...

It's mostly just rhetorics and investigating diplomacy, that is trying an ice with a stick. Like Roaming East pointed out North Korea and China want to show off their power to counter US superiority ("look what we got" as said) and strenghten their governments' position in domestic politics: showing off might and creating outside threats is way to shift focus somewhere else from domestic problems, raise spirit of patriotism and strenghten national unity while giving potential for getting rid off political opponents. Same goes for Iran which knows that if it would use, the country would face nuclear annihilation for sure and the blame about suitcase nuclear bomb strike would be put on Iran.

Training Iranians to use weapons and training Iranians to fight effectively are two different things. The unilateral foreign policy of the United States and vast political, economic and especially military superiority weakens the status of Russia in the world and its national interests. Russian economy is strong and the country gets vast income out from oil & natural gas from their own soil and its middle Asian neighbours like Uzbekistan. Russian military is being modernized all the time while old equipment is sold for pro-Russian countries such as Iran. Vladimir Putin & his authoritarian administration have silenced most of the opposition and concentrated more power for themselves.

To put it short: Russia is turning from democratic though weak state of 1990's to authoritarian half-democracy with superpower status of 21th century. Why it has taken so strong & independent stances in foreign policy? Because it's in their national interests but especially as they can.

However even though Iran is a good companion in arms & nuclear business with Russia, the latter one don't have interest nor capability to openly challenge the USA and its European allies. Despite of modernization, most of the Russian military is still largely obsolete and operational & tactical efficiency have been proven to be mediocre at best in Chechnyan campaign. In the long term country's economy needs membership in WTO as currently it's still dependent from oil & natural gas revenues: the reason why Russia is planning timber tariffs is to pressure/allure forestry industries to move into the country and thus make the economic structure more versatile. The EU showed unity in the top conference meeting at Volga couple of months ago when it defended Estonia & Poland and the EU is getting forward in getting new basic treaty in place, and which can only weaken Russian foreign policy which is dominated by the idea of divide & conquer.

If the USA wants to contain the Russian semi-aggressive foreign policy, the best way to do is to accept Russia as equal partner in world affairs, emphasize areas of agreement in bi-lateral relations and strenghten the weak UN.

Source for Russia training Iranian troops would be appreciated. However Russia is NOT US's ally and the reason why Russia is assisting Iran is simple: it wants to show that it has a foreign policy of its own and that the USA should treat the Russia in equal manner. Moreover selling weapons & nuclear related material to Iran is economicly beneficial, not to mention that your underestimating Russian economic strenght here.

This isn't scenario is far from certain. The invasion of Taiwan would reduce foreign investments into China due to unstable business environment, the war would put big strain on country's economy and most importantly: Taiwan is important trade partner for China as many Taiwan companies have made investments into Chinese special economy zones and Chinese companies have heavily invested on Taiwan. Furthermore there are tens of thousands of riots in the rural China opposing the authoritarian rule so the domestic situation can't afford major war.

Though it can be asked: who outside the US remember this treaty anymore?

Even the authoritarian government of China knows that it can't afford losing the US companies & trade as it would crumble the whole economy and spark wide-spread domestic unrest: the Chinese middle class has tolerated the government because they have financial prosperity but without it they would have no reason to do so anymore. Even though the communist government is seemingly omnipotent, it has to take the stances of world community into consideration as well so part of it can't do just everything.

A year ago or two years, I can't recall, China established a mandate to take back Taiwan by a specific certain date, which I can't quite recall exactly, however 2012, 2010, and 2020 all seem to ring a bell.

The Chinese government doesn't have much fear of it's citizens, they've gone ahead and mass evicted people for the building of dams, people who's families have lived there for centuries and have many relics throughout the area. If the accounts by many thousands of Chinese immigrants are true, then China's government is also involved in forced, mandatory abortions, by means of government vans stopping in villages and aborting the fetuses of pregnant women after hauling them into the van, and ordering doctors to kill newborns after they've been taken from the mother to be placed in the nursery which can be seen by an incredible amount of hospital records that say that all these children, died mysteriously, and that is all.

The middle class mostly inhabits Hong Kong and makes up a small percentage of the population. They have hundreds of millions of lower class that work in hellish conditions already and no one cares enough to do something about it, mostly for the reason that China is a nuclear armed nation.

As for who would remember, Taiwan certainly would, until it got removed from their books, like everything that defies the superiority of the Chinese government. And you can be sure the media would dig it up, and France would bring it up, and Germany, and Britain under the new prime minister, and whoever else has been taking a political whack at us lately.

The only risk of war I see right now is the possibility of the US invading another country. It looks as if they have forces all around Iran and they seem to be working eagerly on producing excuses for an attack (accusing Iran of being responsible for terrorist attacks in Iraq).

However some kind of source for this mandate would be appreciated and the means introduced in it for getting Taiwan back.

Even the Chinese people have a bottom in their bag and controlling population takes great deal of effort. Otherwise the communistic government wouldn't bother to allow luxurious services & products for their citizens or allow some rural villages/towns a limited degree of self-governance.

Some 200-250 million strenght Chinese middle class (depending of definition & calculation method), most being in middle or high positions in the society such as managers, designers, economists, bankers etc, is not a force to be underestimated. Middle class people isn't centered on just Hong Kong and its surroundings but the Chinese coast areas as a whole.

I'm quite sure that Germany, France and Great Britain would rather choose diplomacy between the USA & China than full-scale war.

I think the source was from a television news group, possibly CNN, or NBC, but I can't find an online source. But a few supporting articles
Hu warns Taiwan's residents that they decide between peace and war
China angered by US statement that mentioned "The Republic of Taiwan"

The second URL may take you to an index on it, or the actual article I couldn't grab the proper url.

Most of China does not live a luxurious life, they are general poor and poor as in the iconic poverty the pops into the mind with pictures of homeless people , starving children and so on; many people are malnourished, and more still living in a state of life that is without any modern advancement, which has led to the spread of disease throughout the country. The luxuries they provide are not at their sole expense, they help buisness grow to gain revenue, and have let industry pollute their rivers, their atmosphere, and with so many people directly dependent on those rivers, it's an atrocity.

The population of China is little over a billion people, growing each day, and in many modernized areas, service in the military is mandatory for 2 years, which gives the Chinese a massive military. With the lack of respect for life, they could very well kill any rioters, hell it wouldn't be the first time. Mao killed hundreds of thousands of people for "acting against the government". In short, the only people capable of mounting a significant resistance would be the rich and powerful and the triades of the local area and maybe arms industrialists. There are more soldiers and more bullets than there are potential resistance fighters. I look at China with the perspective that they have less of a respect for the lives of their citizens than Russia, which is a very difficult thing to achieve, seeing as in Russia, the disfigured or mentally disabled are put into orphanages to fend for themselves, hostages are of no concern, only those holding them are and in there case their worth is as dead, and the "president" is taking supreme power. I doubt they'll have too much to worry about.

The only thing China truly needs from the outside world is resources; particularly: steel/iron, coal, other metals and whatever else they haven't depleted within their own borders.

As towards France, Germany, etc. etc. I didn't say they were going to start a war, I just said that they would dig up the treaty with Japan and complain about it. Basically we'd lose more faith from other nations that we have a will to act upon our documents.

From the short bit that I have read, it appears to me that you guys are thinking too much on the politics side of it.

In my little free minded brain I think that we already are in another world war, and have been for quite a while. Think about it, WW2 almost hasn't really ended, just there have been off times and on times, and the battles/countries have shifted. A lot of people are thinking more allong the lines of what fighting has been involving their own country, or the allies of their country and not on the broader scale.

From my personal knowledge let me explain my reasoning (keep in mind that I'm only 16, and am not some sort of master philosipher)

Post WW2 Russia and US end their alliance, and hostilities begin to rise with threats of atomic/nuclear weapons. By now the war has changed from a shooting war to a deplomatic war (still a war). The Warsaw pact is beginning to spread, and because of the relative proximity to the US the Korean war begins, but there has still been no break in fighting between Russia, and US.

Post Korea, hostilities simmer down again, but again the Warsaw pact shows it's teath in Vietnam. The US claimed to have won that war, but everybody knows that as soon as they pulled out the north took over the whole country. Now the Warsaw Pact begins spreading to the west, and sells masses of weapons to countries in Africa and the Middle East.

Post Vietnam with all those Ak's, and RPG's from the Russians, Middle Eastern and African "feudes" get more and more violent, but continue to be ignored by the western world. However Iraq now becomes a hot topic because of the Soviet influences, so the US moves in to try and calm things down, but again as soon as they pull out things errupt again.

Post Iraq #1, The African conflicts are finnally recognised by the western world and Somalia hosts the Ameriacans for a while.

Post Mogashidu Iraq hits the fan again.

And that only covers the American side of things, Russia also had it's fair share of ugly conflicts all the way through this.

So tell me; since when has the second world war in fact ended? It seems to me that the whole world has been at war since WW2. Heck the world has always been at war, but not always on an inter-continental basis.

The point is the world has always been at war, and it will never stop. I think it was Einstein who said "As long as there are people there will be war."

Indeed war hasn't stopped, but a world war is first of all a declared war between all the most powerful nations and all takes place in the same region or in regions related to the countries fighting in the main region and is second of all a term we invented to separate the wars from past conflicts as they changed the way wars were waged. So it's a technicality more than anything, but still the nitpick stands.

Not meaning to sound like a total ass or inconsiderate but think about this.

If Hiroshima and Nagasaki had not been nuked no one would have seen the death and destruction caused by the two bombs. I think that the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are what have kept the world from spiraling down into a radioactive hell so far to this date.

People who have seen ground zero, who have seen the shadows of people burned into walls right before they were vaporized, have seen the desolated almost lunar looking landscape, and the countless numbers of people suffering from radiation burns and illness has made many people realize that this is a line that has been crossed twice and that was twice too many.

Thats why so far all wars since have been conventional. Thats why MacArthur was called a madman for wanting to carpet bomb North Korea's border with China into a radioactive no mans land.

Most people and politicians understand that nuclear weapons are the most powerful weapons on this planet but the price to pay for their use is too high.

Thats why I dont expect their to be a nuclear exchange between any of the major powers or even up and coming powers.

My biggest fear is Pakistan falling to the Islamic Fundamentalists and then they in turn hand over a few nukes to Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

I could almost imagine a Special Forces team

Have you ever considered (this just occurred to me just recently) that there maybe a time where China is going to have to expand its boarders to support its massive population.

This may add a resolve to their conquests.

Expanding its borders into a region thats already burgeoning (ROC) helps alleviate their problems how? If they are going to expand they are going to expand to less populated more resource rich areas, like the Siberian plain or the Spratley Islands.

China has polluted it's rivers, filled it's atmosphere with smog, if that industry transfers over to here, we'll double our pollution output, and we're already the highest polluter on the planet. Atmospheric pollution does indeed spread out, but not instantly, it takes time to disperse. Their smog would be our smog, their poisoned rivers would become our poisoned rivers. A self sufficient isolationist nation can no longer exist without destroying the people's freedom because of the high standard quality of life. If technology were a step ahead, perhaps it could work, but with today's means it's just not viable.

The mind control technology is work based on the idea of implanting electrodes in the brain to stimulate areas at the presence of a radio signal to do so. In the 60s this technology was developed to treat mental patients, and it worked for some, sort of. Today it helps people with serious muscle contraction caused deformities and similar diseases. The brain control the Chinese have developed is a more developed form of the age old principle. In lab mice, they can control them like RC cars by stimulating certain parts of the "motor strip" in the brain. It's not about to turn the masses into zombies following every order, but it's something to consider when one thinks about how far along China is technologically.

I think that the Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombings are to blame for all the current, and past wars. They bred the American fear of the Russians posessing such weapons, as well as the Russian fear of the Americans using that technology against them.

Just a quick thought of mine at 10:40 pm (late for me), so don't take this too seriously.

Oh, ok. I kinda figured that what was to blame for most of the wars after 1945 were the desires of people to rule themselves, other people, or other territory. I mean, I can't see what the nuclear bombings had to do with anything in Indochina from Dien Bien Phu on, or what they had to do with pretty much the entire continent of Africa, or Tibet, or anything.
What bred the American fear of Russians having those weapons was that Russians had a really good spy network, and soon enough, they got a bomb. No one likes to be on equal footing with people they think are crazy, they always want some sort of "bigger gun".