There's only one way that scenario's ever going to play out,
'The earth was nearly wiped clean of life - a great cleansing - an atomic spark struck by human hands quickly raged out of control. Spears of nuclear fire rained from the skies. Continents were swallowed in flames and fell beneath the boiling oceans.'
- Fallout 2 Intro
Even politicians have too much to lose from that sort of thing. As long as powerful nations have nuclear weapons I don't think we're going to see another world war. The minute it looked like someone was going to lose that someone would nuke everything they could reach.
Just finished playing that game.. made me think of this thread too.
I agree. But then again, what we have now is more or less peace, the Iraq conflict is isolated, as are the other few wars raging about the Earth. Someday, things might tip out of balance, but I sure as hell can't see it happening anytime soon.
Well if this isn't going supposedly happen then how come countries that are generally against us are making threats and finding ways to demonstrate their power. Korea tested a nuke and an IRBM but generally fails, china successfully shot down a weather satellite with an ICBM while Iran basically wants Israel to be destroyed by any means possible. I believe Shavis (No idea how to spell his name) stated something like "I want Israel whipped off the map." And Russia is both training Iranian troops and providing them with weapons that can effectively combat our forces!
I mean other incidents to are indirect protests of the united states actions. Its almost as if some sort of alliance is happening or rather an unofficial unification that condemns our actions. Can we really be so sure what would happen if we had to engage one of those nations. And how will are politicians react if they found that one of our enemies was getting aid from China, Russia or even North Korea?
I honestly don't think it will take much to start this whole thing off. I don't believe its a matter of if but when!
If you know the enemy
and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.
Well if this isn't going supposedly happen then how come countries that are generally against us are making threats and finding ways to demonstrate their power. Korea tested a nuke and an IRBM but generally fails, china successfully shot down a weather satellite with an ICBM while Iran basically wants Israel to be destroyed by any means possible. I believe Shavis (No idea how to spell his name) stated something like "I want Israel whipped off the map." And Russia is both training Iranian troops and providing them with weapons that can effectively combat our forces!
I mean other incidents to are indirect protests of the united states actions. Its almost as if some sort of alliance is happening or rather an unofficial unification that condemns our actions. Can we really be so sure what would happen if we had to engage one of those nations. And how will are politicians react if they found that one of our enemies was getting aid from China, Russia or even North Korea?
I honestly don't think it will take much to start this whole thing off. I don't believe its a matter of if but when!
just maintaining the status quo.
China and Korea continue to test their missle technology to equalize our test whenever we talk about ABM or a new Aegis missle system. kind of a "yeah look what we can do" thing. there is nothing overtly threatening about it. The US buddies up with poland and the various ex-com bloc nations so Russia buddies up with Iran and Syria. Lets not forget that once upon a time that Russia was buddies with China. Certainly no love lost their anymore.
And it has never been a secret that Russia is willing to equip a military if'n they got the gold to spring for it. Chavez bought a bunch of AK's and is talking about Fighter jets and half of Irans stuff is Soviet in origin with the other half being antiquated American stuff or crude copies of both.
CANNON, n. An instrument employed in the rectification of national boundaries. - Ambrose Bierce
China is puffing up for the invasion of Taiwan and want the US to believe that they are capable of doing damage to us, in one form or another; in the case of the missile and the satellite, to show that our intelligence systems are vulnerable. If the US backs down, Taiwan becomes another example of how much our word means, like the treaty signed before we left Vietnam that we never enforced, resulting in the communist unification of Nam. If we step up to the plate, a major war could break out, with no winner that can be predicted at the moment.
People often say that China is economically dependent on the US, but China is under an authoritarian government, with no restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They can make people work for food alone, if even food and not simply under the threat of death. In America, despite how many things we think are meaningless that come from China, those meaningless items, those mass produced parts and pieces, go into the making of products we do need or at least commonly depend on. If we boycott China, we'll stop getting all these miscellaneous bits and bobs that we use are parts of items, and we have to build up industry in the US, which results in even more pollution, which is even more bad press in global affairs, and lowers the quality of American life, and furthermore and most importantly, it's going to cost a shitload, which of course can be printed on fresh bills much like everything today, but it'll be an excuse for the future democrat based government to start a tax hike, and then tax the new industries that we have to build for their pollution, and tax whatever else they can find to tax.
China's military technology is dated, but they aren't out of the running, Taiwan is closer to China by a few thousand miles, than we are. Which means they can either use cheap ships to ferry over mass loads of infantry, or use their best junk heaps to hall back and forth what they need until we can bring in bigger guns. We have a presence in Japan and around Taiwan, but it's not exactly the pacific fleet. Besides, so little intelligence comes out of intelligence, we don't really know what they are capable of, besides mind control, they published their work on successful mouse mind control a year ago, shortly after similar work in Japan was published.
China and Korea continue to test their missle technology to equalize our test whenever we talk about ABM or a new Aegis missle system. kind of a "yeah look what we can do" thing. there is nothing overtly threatening about it. The US buddies up with poland and the various ex-com bloc nations so Russia buddies up with Iran and Syria. Lets not forget that once upon a time that Russia was buddies with China. Certainly no love lost their anymore.
yeah but that doesn't explain why Russia would take time to train Iranian troops when they are supposed to be allies with us and they know that we don't like them. Are they preparing them for something or what? Certainly that costs money Russia's economy supposedly cant support.
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China's military technology is dated, but they aren't out of the running, Taiwan is closer to China by a few thousand miles, than we are. Which means they can either use cheap ships to ferry over mass loads of infantry, or use their best junk heaps to hall back and forth what they need until we can bring in bigger guns. We have a presence in Japan and around Taiwan, but it's not exactly the pacific fleet. Besides, so little intelligence comes out of intelligence, we don't really know what they are capable of, besides mind control, they published their work on successful mouse mind control a year ago, shortly after similar work in Japan was published.
About mind control, I think that has something to do with scalar technology and ultra low radio frequencies that affect the brain...
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People often say that China is economically dependent on the US, but China is under an authoritarian government, with no restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They can make people work for food alone, if even food and not simply under the threat of death. In America, despite how many things we think are meaningless that come from China, those meaningless items, those mass produced parts and pieces, go into the making of products we do need or at least commonly depend on. If we boycott China, we'll stop getting all these miscellaneous bits and bobs that we use are parts of items, and we have to build up industry in the US, which results in even more pollution, which is even more bad press in global affairs, and lowers the quality of American life, and furthermore and most importantly, it's going to cost a shitload, which of course can be printed on fresh bills much like everything today, but it'll be an excuse for the future democrat based government to start a tax hike, and then tax the new industries that we have to build for their pollution, and tax whatever else they can find to tax.
We are codependent, our companies go to China while we buy from the work of Chinese workers. Actually, American companies only have to pay 2/7 the cost of an American worker for a Chinese worker. Anyway, for this reason I can see why we maybe reluctant to go to war so quickly. However, I disagree on you other points. I believe reverting America back to a producing nation is a good thing. If more companies stayed in America more jobs could be produced which, in turn, leads to an improved economy. More people have more money to spend. Also, being a producing nation make it so other nations depends on us so we could have better control over world affairs while securing ourselves. It doesn't necessarily mean more pollution but rather displaced pollution. Factories in China are abandoned and replaced with ones in America. Sure we may go into an economic depression but we would no-doubt recover; perhaps even better than we were before. Self sufficiency is the way to go, at least thats what I think.
If you know the enemy
and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.
yeah but that doesn't explain why Russia would take time to train Iranian troops when they are supposed to be allies with us and they know that we don't like them. Are they preparing them for something or what? Certainly that costs money Russia's economy supposedly cant support.
At no point was Russia an ally of the US after 1945. Not then. Not now. They simply arent a direct enemy anymore. Russia is training Irans army for one reason. Money. Iran buys Russian weapons and guess who has to train them on it. This training results in further purchase which require even more training. Russia isnt losing money sending technicians and advisors to Iran, they are gaining it through future arms deals and 'incentive' packages like oil.
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Originally Posted by Time2KILL
We are codependent, our companies go to China while we buy from the work of Chinese workers. Actually, American companies only have to pay 2/7 the cost of an American worker for a Chinese worker. Anyway, for this reason I can see why we maybe reluctant to go to war so quickly. However, I disagree on you other points. I believe reverting America back to a producing nation is a good thing. If more companies stayed in America more jobs could be produced which, in turn, leads to an improved economy. More people have more money to spend. Also, being a producing nation make it so other nations depends on us so we could have better control over world affairs while securing ourselves. It doesn't necessarily mean more pollution but rather displaced pollution. Factories in China are abandoned and replaced with ones in America. Sure we may go into an economic depression but we would no-doubt recover; perhaps even better than we were before. Self sufficiency is the way to go, at least thats what I think.
Good point and im not adverse to your line of thinking. Just be aware that should America shift back to American produced goods instead of cheap overseas items, that the cost WILL be directly returned to the consumer. You can kiss Box stores and cheap items goodbye. After awhile your average American is gonna miss the days of $2 bags of T-shirts and cars under $30,000...
CANNON, n. An instrument employed in the rectification of national boundaries. - Ambrose Bierce
Well if this isn't going supposedly happen then how come countries that are generally against us are making threats and finding ways to demonstrate their power. Korea tested a nuke and an IRBM but generally fails, china successfully shot down a weather satellite with an ICBM while Iran basically wants Israel to be destroyed by any means possible.
It's mostly just rhetorics and investigating diplomacy, that is trying an ice with a stick. Like Roaming East pointed out North Korea and China want to show off their power to counter US superiority ("look what we got" as said) and strenghten their governments' position in domestic politics: showing off might and creating outside threats is way to shift focus somewhere else from domestic problems, raise spirit of patriotism and strenghten national unity while giving potential for getting rid off political opponents. Same goes for Iran which knows that if it would use, the country would face nuclear annihilation for sure and the blame about suitcase nuclear bomb strike would be put on Iran.
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And Russia is both training Iranian troops and providing them with weapons that can effectively combat our forces! I mean other incidents to are indirect protests of the united states actions. Its almost as if some sort of alliance is happening or rather an unofficial unification that condemns our actions.
Training Iranians to use weapons and training Iranians to fight effectively are two different things. The unilateral foreign policy of the United States and vast political, economic and especially military superiority weakens the status of Russia in the world and its national interests. Russian economy is strong and the country gets vast income out from oil & natural gas from their own soil and its middle Asian neighbours like Uzbekistan. Russian military is being modernized all the time while old equipment is sold for pro-Russian countries such as Iran. Vladimir Putin & his authoritarian administration have silenced most of the opposition and concentrated more power for themselves.
To put it short: Russia is turning from democratic though weak state of 1990's to authoritarian half-democracy with superpower status of 21th century. Why it has taken so strong & independent stances in foreign policy? Because it's in their national interests but especially as they can.
However even though Iran is a good companion in arms & nuclear business with Russia, the latter one don't have interest nor capability to openly challenge the USA and its European allies. Despite of modernization, most of the Russian military is still largely obsolete and operational & tactical efficiency have been proven to be mediocre at best in Chechnyan campaign. In the long term country's economy needs membership in WTO as currently it's still dependent from oil & natural gas revenues: the reason why Russia is planning timber tariffs is to pressure/allure forestry industries to move into the country and thus make the economic structure more versatile. The EU showed unity in the top conference meeting at Volga couple of months ago when it defended Estonia & Poland and the EU is getting forward in getting new basic treaty in place, and which can only weaken Russian foreign policy which is dominated by the idea of divide & conquer.
If the USA wants to contain the Russian semi-aggressive foreign policy, the best way to do is to accept Russia as equal partner in world affairs, emphasize areas of agreement in bi-lateral relations and strenghten the weak UN.
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yeah but that doesn't explain why Russia would take time to train Iranian troops when they are supposed to be allies with us and they know that we don't like them. Are they preparing them for something or what? Certainly that costs money Russia's economy supposedly cant support.
Source for Russia training Iranian troops would be appreciated. However Russia is NOT US's ally and the reason why Russia is assisting Iran is simple: it wants to show that it has a foreign policy of its own and that the USA should treat the Russia in equal manner. Moreover selling weapons & nuclear related material to Iran is economicly beneficial, not to mention that your underestimating Russian economic strenght here.
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Originally Posted by Chemix2
China is puffing up for the invasion of Taiwan
This isn't scenario is far from certain. The invasion of Taiwan would reduce foreign investments into China due to unstable business environment, the war would put big strain on country's economy and most importantly: Taiwan is important trade partner for China as many Taiwan companies have made investments into Chinese special economy zones and Chinese companies have heavily invested on Taiwan. Furthermore there are tens of thousands of riots in the rural China opposing the authoritarian rule so the domestic situation can't afford major war.
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If the US backs down, Taiwan becomes another example of how much our word means, like the treaty signed before we left Vietnam that we never enforced
Though it can be asked: who outside the US remember this treaty anymore?
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People often say that China is economically dependent on the US, but China is under an authoritarian government, with no restrictions on what they can and cannot do. They can make people work for food alone, if even food and not simply under the threat of death.
Even the authoritarian government of China knows that it can't afford losing the US companies & trade as it would crumble the whole economy and spark wide-spread domestic unrest: the Chinese middle class has tolerated the government because they have financial prosperity but without it they would have no reason to do so anymore. Even though the communist government is seemingly omnipotent, it has to take the stances of world community into consideration as well so part of it can't do just everything.
Returning back to good ol' Pub, at least for some time
A year ago or two years, I can't recall, China established a mandate to take back Taiwan by a specific certain date, which I can't quite recall exactly, however 2012, 2010, and 2020 all seem to ring a bell.
The Chinese government doesn't have much fear of it's citizens, they've gone ahead and mass evicted people for the building of dams, people who's families have lived there for centuries and have many relics throughout the area. If the accounts by many thousands of Chinese immigrants are true, then China's government is also involved in forced, mandatory abortions, by means of government vans stopping in villages and aborting the fetuses of pregnant women after hauling them into the van, and ordering doctors to kill newborns after they've been taken from the mother to be placed in the nursery which can be seen by an incredible amount of hospital records that say that all these children, died mysteriously, and that is all.
The middle class mostly inhabits Hong Kong and makes up a small percentage of the population. They have hundreds of millions of lower class that work in hellish conditions already and no one cares enough to do something about it, mostly for the reason that China is a nuclear armed nation.
As for who would remember, Taiwan certainly would, until it got removed from their books, like everything that defies the superiority of the Chinese government. And you can be sure the media would dig it up, and France would bring it up, and Germany, and Britain under the new prime minister, and whoever else has been taking a political whack at us lately.
The only risk of war I see right now is the possibility of the US invading another country. It looks as if they have forces all around Iran and they seem to be working eagerly on producing excuses for an attack (accusing Iran of being responsible for terrorist attacks in Iraq).
A year ago or two years, I can't recall, China established a mandate to take back Taiwan by a specific certain date, which I can't quite recall exactly, however 2012, 2010, and 2020 all seem to ring a bell.
However some kind of source for this mandate would be appreciated and the means introduced in it for getting Taiwan back.
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The Chinese government doesn't have much fear of it's citizens
Even the Chinese people have a bottom in their bag and controlling population takes great deal of effort. Otherwise the communistic government wouldn't bother to allow luxurious services & products for their citizens or allow some rural villages/towns a limited degree of self-governance.
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The middle class mostly inhabits Hong Kong and makes up a small percentage of the population.
Some 200-250 million strenght Chinese middle class (depending of definition & calculation method), most being in middle or high positions in the society such as managers, designers, economists, bankers etc, is not a force to be underestimated. Middle class people isn't centered on just Hong Kong and its surroundings but the Chinese coast areas as a whole.
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And you can be sure the media would dig it up, and France would bring it up, and Germany, and Britain under the new prime minister, and whoever else has been taking a political whack at us lately.
I'm quite sure that Germany, France and Great Britain would rather choose diplomacy between the USA & China than full-scale war.
Returning back to good ol' Pub, at least for some time
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